New data shows young, mobile-first consumers in Southeast Asia, India and other emerging markets are reshaping global digital commerce — but many Australian businesses may still be building for the wrong checkout experience.
Australian businesses looking for their next growth market may not need to look as far as Europe or North America.
New research from EBANX and World Data Lab suggests some of the fastest-growing digital consumer markets are much closer to home, with Southeast Asia, India and the broader Indo-Pacific emerging as major engines of global e-commerce growth.
The findings, published in the 2026 edition of EBANX’s Beyond Borders report, point to a major shift in where online spending is growing, who is driving it, and how those consumers expect to pay.
For Australian companies in SaaS, e-commerce, streaming, gaming and online education, the data raises a simple but important question: are they ready for the way consumers in nearby markets actually buy online?
The report challenges a long-held assumption that digital commerce maturity closely follows economic development. In several emerging markets, e-commerce already captures a larger share of household spending than in many advanced Western economies.
According to EBANX and World Data Lab, e-commerce accounts for 22% of household spending in India, 19.8% in Indonesia and 11.5% in Brazil. That compares with 9.8% in the United States, 6.4% in Germany and 6.9% in France.
South Korea sits second globally at 23.5%, while China leads the world at 63.4%.
Nearby markets including Indonesia, Thailand and the Philippines are also allocating a growing share of household spending to digital channels, despite often being treated by Western businesses as less mature online markets.
The Philippines is one of the clearest examples of the trend.
EBANX and World Data Lab project the share of consumer spending happening online in the country will rise from 5.7% today to 9.6% by 2035, reflecting the rapid normalisation of digital payments and e-commerce among its mobile-first population.
For Australian merchants facing slower growth at home, the numbers point to a structural opportunity in markets that are geographically close, digitally active and still expanding.
World Data Lab projects that more than one billion people in emerging markets will join the consumer class by 2036.
That would represent a 32% expansion of the global consumer base, compared with growth of just 3% in developed economies over the same period.
Consumer spending in Southeast Asia and India alone is projected to grow 147% over the decade.
The growth is being driven by younger populations, rising mobile penetration and consumers who often moved straight into smartphone-based commerce before ever relying on credit cards.
That has major implications for Australian businesses. One of the biggest mistakes companies can make is assuming online commerce in emerging markets is mostly a premium activity for wealthy consumers.
In the United States, 84% of online spending is concentrated among higher-spending consumers. In several emerging markets, however, the centre of gravity is different.
In Vietnam, 86% of online spending comes from the middle-spending brackets. In India, that segment represents nearly 700 million people,” says Sean Yu, VP of Commercial APAC at EBANX.
That middle-market reality changes the payment equation. A business that relies heavily on international credit cards may technically be open to customers in Southeast Asia or India, while still excluding a large share of the people most likely to buy.
In the Philippines, credit and debit cards account for 24% of payments, while digital wallets hold a 40% share. The demand exists, but the standard checkout flow used by many Australian merchants may not reach it.
The issue is especially important for younger consumers, who are entering their first major consumption cycle across Southeast Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa. These consumers are forming brand habits now, often through digital platforms, mobile wallets and subscription services.
In the Philippines, people aged 15 to 30 account for 37% of online education spending and 30% of streaming and gaming spending.
In Kenya, the same age group drives 44% of the online education market. In Nigeria, consumers under 30 account for nearly 70% of online spending in high-growth sectors including gaming and mobility.
That matters because early exposure to digital platforms often shapes long-term consumer behaviour. Businesses that establish trust and familiarity with these users now may be building relationships that last well beyond the first transaction.
Businesses that reach these consumers now are acquiring customers who will drive spending for the next 30 to 40 years,” added Sean Yu.
For subscription businesses, including SaaS platforms, streaming services and online education providers, that makes the opportunity both a retention story and a lifetime-value story.
But access depends heavily on whether merchants support the payment methods consumers already use.
Southeast Asia has largely bypassed the card era. Digital wallets and account-to-account transfers account for 65% of e-commerce in Thailand, 61% in Indonesia and 50% in the Philippines.
International credit cards, which remain the default integration for many Australian businesses selling overseas, are often used by fewer than 10% of consumers in many of these markets.
In Indonesia, domestically issued debit cards are often disabled for e-commerce by default due to fraud concerns, pushing banked consumers towards wallets and QR-based transfers for online transactions.
Local payment rails such as GCash and Maya in the Philippines, OVO and DANA in Indonesia, TrueMoney in Thailand and UPI in India are not fringe payment options. For many consumers, they are the main financial infrastructure used to access digital services.
That means merchants without local payment support may be invisible to much of the market, even when their products are relevant and affordable.
The same challenge applies to recurring payments. Across 12 emerging markets, including the Philippines, Indonesia, Thailand, South Africa and India, more than one billion people use alternative payment methods that can now support cross-border recurring transactions through EBANX.
EBANX has recently expanded its payments infrastructure into Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Turkey. In those markets, cross-border e-commerce already accounts for 28% to 30% of digital transaction volume.
For Australian businesses, proximity to Southeast Asia is a genuine advantage, but geography alone does not create market access. The companies most likely to benefit will be those that build for local payment behaviour, not those that assume a Western checkout model will travel unchanged.
The wider message from the report is clear. The next wave of global e-commerce growth is not waiting for emerging markets to copy the United States, Europe or Australia. It is being shaped by young consumers, mobile-first payments and local digital infrastructure.
For Australian merchants, the opportunity is already live. The more urgent question is whether their payment systems, pricing models and market strategies are ready for the consumers now driving growth next door.
