The method
How it is worked out
Lost = subscribers × fail rate × (1 − recovery) × price × 12
- fail rate
- Share of monthly charges declined
- recovery
- Share of declines eventually collected
Failed Payment Recovery Calculator
Estimate how much subscription revenue you lose to failed card payments and what smarter retries would recover. The result updates as you type so you can compare scenarios quickly.
Keep in mind
What it leaves out
- Voluntary churnCancellations are a different problem.
- Retry costsEach retry carries a small fee; usually trivial against the recovered revenue.
Use the calculator to compare scenarios rather than as a guaranteed forecast.
About the Failed Payment Recovery Calculator
Put a number on involuntary churn: subscribers lost because a card payment failed and was never recovered.
How it works and an example to tryShow less
How to use the result
Failed payments are subscribers times the failure rate. Lost customers are those not recovered by retries. Revenue lost is that count times price, annualised; lifetime value multiplies by the average customer lifetime.
Example to try
5,000 subscribers at £29 with an 8% failure rate and 40% recovery lose 240 customers a month. Lifting recovery to 70% saves 120 a month, about £42,000 of annual MRR.
Put it to work
Try it on a real situation
Load an example
What moves the result most
Worked out from your figures above. Tap a row to try it.
Who uses it, and when
Subscription businesses, SaaS finance leads and anyone choosing a dunning or account-updater service.
Mistakes worth avoiding
- Counting failed payments as voluntary churn and blaming the product.
- Retrying on the same day the card failed, when it is most likely to fail again.
- Cancelling access on the first decline instead of warning the customer.
Questions
What does the Failed Payment Recovery Calculator do?
Estimate how much subscription revenue you lose to failed card payments and what smarter retries would recover.
How should I use the result?
Failed payments are subscribers times the failure rate. Lost customers are those not recovered by retries. Revenue lost is that count times price, annualised; lifetime value multiplies by the average customer lifetime.
Does TechBullion store the information I enter?
The core calculation or transformation runs in your browser. Normal website security and analytics may still record page-level events, but the tool does not need to create a public record from your inputs.
What mistakes do people make with a failed payment recovery calculator?
Counting failed payments as voluntary churn and blaming the product. Retrying on the same day the card failed, when it is most likely to fail again. Cancelling access on the first decline instead of warning the customer.
Is the result guaranteed?
No. Use the result as a practical check or planning aid and verify important decisions with the relevant primary source, provider or professional advice.
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Results are estimates based on the figures entered, for general information only, and not financial, investment, tax or legal advice. See our terms of use.