The world is becoming increasingly volatile and complex to navigate. It is more difficult for business leaders and government officials to make accurate forecasts about future events and different potential outcomes to inform their strategic planning and decision making. What is going to happen in the future in order to gain a competitive advantage against their opponents. However, one new company has developed a smarter, faster, and automated technology to help make smarter decisions.
“Our platform does more than generate a forecast. It enables users to run iterative scenarios, stress test future trajectories, and quantify the impact of decisions before they are made. The goal is simple: help leaders make better, more informed decisions in an increasingly complex world.”— Dr. Anthony Vinci
Introducing VICO: The New AI-Powered Forecasting and Simulation Technology for Business
VICO is an innovative company that provides a completely new category of decision-superiority. It serves as an AI-powered forecasting, simulation, and scenario-assessment engine capable of transforming qualitative signals, such as news and expert judgments about real-world events, into standardized, quantitative probabilities and insights.
These are not predictions. VICO combines an AI system with a mathematical and data science approach to make the most accurate forecasts possible. Experts call this the Bayesian inference approach to forecasting, where the focus is on calculating precise, quantitative probabilities rather than making vague guesses. It can forecast political, geopolitical, and economic events to deliver decision guidance to those in finance, governments, and corporations.
For example, let’s say a company president, portfolio manager, or CEO wants to use VICO to make smart decisions faster. They can ask VICO’s AI system a complex and difficult question. The AI system will spend the next couple of minutes scanning through up to 150,000 different data sources to help answer the question and validate the answer.
VICO is a highly accurate and objective AI forecasting analyst tool that removes human biases and emotions that can negatively impact an objective answer. Furthermore, a team of analysts can use this tool to generate data-driven forecasts within minutes rather than spending hours manually reviewing various data sources themselves. The accuracy of the AI-driven forecasts is much higher too.
How Accurate is VICO?
Many financial and government leaders are hesitant to rely too much on AI-driven decision-making systems out of skepticism about their levels of accuracy. They would probably ask themselves whether VICO can be trusted and whether it avoids inherent bias and hallucinations. Hallucinations are inaccurate but confident answers that an AI system might generate based on false citations and made-up facts.
VICO implements a multi-tiered validation process by structuring, assessing, and cleaning all the raw data sources in the proprietary data set. VICO’s mathematical and data science approach for large language models helps detect and remove all hallucinations and biases from data sources. That way, the AI can deliver accurate, unbiased forecasts based on legitimate data.
Best of all, VICO back-tests to measure how well its AI models do with accurate forecasting, especially compared with people and prediction markets like Kalshi and Polymarket. The company uses the industry standard Brier Score to measure forecasting accuracy and to compare its forecasts to the prediction market forecast scores on real-world events as they happen.
The Brier score measures the accuracy of probabilistic forecasts for various binary events. For example, let’s say you wanted to forecast the probability of it raining outside tomorrow. The Brier score’s formula would calculate the mean squared difference between predicted probabilities (e.g., 0.0 to 1.0) and accurate outcomes (0 or 1). A lower score near 0 indicates better calibration and accuracy.
Based on VICO’s back test results, its AI forecasting models regularly outperform the prediction market forecast scores, as well as most of the so-called experts. Even though recognizable betting markets like Polymarket and Kalshi provide forecasts, they require betting pools influenced by inside traders and irrational users. Because of this, their forecasts are less reliable and more prone to biases.
VICO’s AI solution is much more scalable. It doesn’t rely on betting pools that limit the number of possible forecasts. Instead, VICO uses AI, data science, and mathematical approaches to calculate more accurate forecasts and a Brier score to measure and back test results.
Use Case Examples
Think about what a company president, CEO, portfolio manager, or government official might want to forecast. Here are some examples of questions that they might want to know the answer to:
- Will Democrats win the Senate majority in 2026?
- Will a USA recession be announced in the next 90 days?
- Will the Iran war end within the next 60 days?
- Is Gavin Newsom going to be the Democratic Presidential Nominee in 2028?
The VICO Simulator product allows users to simulate the leading indicators and resulting consequences of such events. By analyzing thousands of data sources, the AI will generate a probability percentage for each forecast and how long it will take for a resolution.
VICO Simulator product- where users can simulate the leading indicators or resulting consequences of an event
For instance, the forecast of whether a “USA recession is announced in the next 365 days” currently has a 70.0% probability rating with a resolution in a rolling 365 days. Users can simulate the leading indicators of this forecast by exploring different “What If” scenarios to see how this outcome could happen.
Of course, the changes in the news cycle can bring changes to these forecasts and their probabilities of coming true. That is why users are encouraged to regularly check back on VICO’s Monitor page to see the most up-to-date VICO-managed forecasts on the platform.
Example forecast showing how closely we track high volatility, high velocity news cycles (Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense in 2026?)
Another high velocity/ high volatility example (“Will a major US bank fail or require a federal bailout in 2026?”)
“Monitor” landing page- where users can see all VICO-managed forecasts
About VICO
VICO was founded in 2025. The two co-founders are Dr. Anthony Vinci, a former intelligence officer as well as economist and technologist Dr. Lyndon Oh, a former college fellow both attending the London School of Economics. Together they successfully formed VICO after receiving startup funds from Crosslink Capital, Victoria Six Advisors, Gaingels, Multiball Capital, and AIN Ventures. VICO’s entire leadership team consists of four PhD professionals who are experts in AI data science and intelligence. Dr. Vinci’s profound expertise is the driving force behind VICO’s technological breakthroughs. He is a leading voice operating at the critical intersection of AI, national security, and global finance. He is also the author of The Fourth Intelligence Revolution: The Future of Espionage and the Battle to Save America, examining how China and artificial intelligence are reshaping the future of intelligence
Before forming VICO, he was a Managing Director at Cerberus Capital Management, where he invested in technology, aerospace, national security, and strategic supply chain companies. He also served as a member of the Core Management Team at Bridgewater Associates, the hedge fund founded by Ray Dalio.
VICO’s revolutionary technology offers the ability to quantify and navigate event risk in an increasingly complex world to deliver decision guidance to high-profile clients in finance, corporations, and government. The VICO platform is integrated into the Bloomberg Terminal making it easier for financial leaders to access it. The company also offers a free trial Beta account at https://www.vico.io/
