In the early 1900s, horses were the backbone of transportation. Within 15 years, automobiles replaced them, transforming how people and goods moved across America. Fast forward to today, we are on the brink of a similar transformation—but this time, humans are the ones being replaced. As humanoid robots rise in capability, we are about to witness a disruption in labor akin to what happened with horses a century ago.
The concept is simple: just as cars with internal combustion engines disrupted horse-drawn carriages, a new “labor engine” consisting of sensors, AI, actuators, and advanced power systems is poised to disrupt human labor. This revolution is inevitable, and it will reshape industries and societies as we know them.
The Building Blocks of the Disruption: The Labor Engine
Humanoid robots are at the heart of this labor disruption, equipped with sensors (cameras, pressure sensors, microphones), powerful AI software, and actuators that allow them to interact with objects in their environment. Additionally, advancements in battery technology now enable robots to operate for hours at a time, performing labor-intensive tasks that previously required human effort.
These technological advancements have made humanoid robots more cost-effective, with the cost of producing high-specification humanoid robots dropping by 40% in recent years. As this trend continues, robots will become more affordable and capable, marking the beginning of a widespread shift in how labor is performed globally.
Inevitability of Labor Disruption by Humanoid Robots
Disruptions happen when a new technology delivers at least 10 times the utility of the incumbent system, and humanoid robots are no exception. Humanoid robots will soon provide more utility at a fraction of the cost of human labor. Consider a robot with a lifetime cost of $200,000 that can work 20,000 hours: its hourly cost comes to $10. As technology improves, this cost will decrease even further. By 2035, robots will perform labor for less than $1 per hour, making them an increasingly viable option across industries.
Initially, robots may be limited to simpler tasks, but with advancements in AI, their capabilities will grow, ultimately enabling them to perform most tasks that humans currently do—and in many cases, even more efficiently.
A New Labor System: More Than Just Replacing Jobs
The coming wave of humanoid robots will not simply replace human workers; it will create an entirely new labor system. Much like how automobiles created an entirely new transportation network, humanoid robots will form a new, scalable workforce. The marginal cost of labor will rapidly approach zero, leading to far-reaching consequences across industries.
This shift will require new ways of thinking. Traditional metrics like jobs and hourly wages will become outdated as robots perform tasks without the same constraints that human workers face, such as fatigue or the need for breaks. Humanoid robots will work 24/7, performing tasks with precision and efficiency, driving down costs and raising productivity.
The Disruption of Labor Is Task-Oriented, Not Job-Oriented
The disruption is not about robots taking over “jobs”—it’s about robots performing tasks. Most jobs consist of a variety of tasks that require different levels of skill. As humanoid robots enter the workforce, they will first take on simpler, repetitive tasks. Over time, they will handle more complex tasks, leaving humans to perform the roles that robots cannot yet replicate—at least initially.
However, with the pace of technological advancement, humanoid robots will eventually surpass human capabilities in many areas. Tasks that once required years of training will be performed by robots at a fraction of the cost and time, pushing society toward a labor system dominated by robots.
The Impact: Cheaper and Better Products
As humanoid robots become more integrated into industries, the cost of products and services will fall. Since labor is a fundamental part of every product’s supply chain, cheaper robot labor means lower costs for everything—from manufacturing to logistics to customer service.
Simultaneously, the quality of goods and services will improve. Robots don’t suffer from fatigue or distraction, and they can execute tasks with high levels of precision every time. As the marginal cost of labor approaches zero, manufacturers will have little incentive to cut corners, resulting in higher-quality products becoming the standard.
Unprecedented Increases in Productivity
With the rise of humanoid robots like Tesla Optimus Gen 2, global productivity is set to skyrocket. Robots can work far more hours than humans, completing tasks at a faster pace and with greater accuracy. This will free up human workers from repetitive, dangerous, or physically taxing jobs, allowing them to focus on tasks that require creativity, critical thinking, or emotional intelligence.
Moreover, as robots take over these labor-intensive jobs, new industries and opportunities will emerge. Just as the rise of automobiles spurred the creation of highways, car manufacturing, and roadside services, humanoid robots will enable new business models and industries we have yet to envision.
National Interest: A Robotic Workforce for Economic Growth
For governments, the rise of humanoid robots represents both a challenge and an opportunity. Countries that embrace this disruption will benefit from increased economic growth, as robots allow for rapid expansion of the workforce without the traditional limitations of human labor.
A humanoid robot can be added to the workforce at a fraction of the cost and time it takes to train and employ a human worker. This ability to scale the workforce quickly will give nations a competitive edge in global markets. By 2035, a country could add millions of robots to its workforce within a year, fueling unprecedented growth in its economy.
The Long-Term Implications: A New Economic Model
Humanoid robots are not just a replacement for human workers—they represent the dawn of a new era in labor and economics. As the cost of labor falls, we will see a shift toward an economy of superabundance. Scarcity, which has traditionally driven economic systems, will become a thing of the past as robots take over the production and service sectors.
This will require a complete rethinking of economic models, societal roles, and the nature of work itself. Humanoid robots are on the verge of transforming the way we live, work, and interact with the world.
Conclusion: Embrace the Change
The disruption of human labor by humanoid robots is inevitable. As these robots become more affordable and capable, they will take over a wide range of tasks, creating new opportunities and challenges. While this shift will lead to significant job displacement, it also presents an opportunity to rethink how society values work and productivity.
To thrive in this new world, we must protect people, not jobs. Humanoid robots will usher in a future where labor is abundant, productivity is limitless, and innovation is boundless. The time to prepare for this future is now.
