Maria Jose Suarez, CEO
Suarez Global Trade
a strategic systemic risk analysis for international business
Executive Summary
International maritime trade is undergoing a structural transformation driven by economic sanctions, intensified naval surveillance, and new regulatory compliance standards. This article proposes that the logistical uncertainty stemming from these factors should no longer be interpreted as a temporary phenomenon, but rather as a permanent systemic risk that is redefining the architecture of global trade. Through an analysis of the geopolitical environment between the United States and Venezuela, it demonstrates how these dynamics directly impact maritime routes, operating costs, investment decisions, and the governance of international supply chains.
- Introduction: From operational risk to structural risk
Historically, maritime transport was characterized by its relative predictability. Routes, contracts, and transit times responded to technical and commercial variables. However, in the last decade, the increasing use of economic sanctions and maritime surveillance as foreign policy instruments has radically altered this balance.
This article argues that current logistical uncertainty is not accidental , but the result of a deliberate redesign of international trade, where geopolitical control takes precedence over economic efficiency.
- Sanctions as an instrument of logistical destabilization
The sanctions imposed by the Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) go beyond the direct prohibition of transactions. Their true impact lies in the creation of a diffuse legal risk environment , where even formally legal operations become operationally unfeasible.
This phenomenon generates three critical effects:
- Overcompliance by banks, insurers, and shipping companies
- Withdrawal of logistical capacity due to fear of secondary sanctions
- Exponential increase in indirect costs associated with documentation, auditing, and insurance
Consequently, maritime trade ceases to be governed solely by supply and demand, and becomes dependent on tolerance for regulatory risk.
- Naval surveillance and disruption of maritime routes
Intensified naval surveillance—patrols, inspections, and satellite monitoring—generates a silent but profound logistical disruption. While it doesn’t always involve formal interdictions, it produces:
- Strategic route diversions
- Congestion in ports considered “safe”
- Increased transit times and fuel consumption
- Contractual penalties for delays
From a systemic perspective, these effects fragment supply chains and reduce the resilience of international trade.
- AIS and traceability as a new axis of logistical power
The Automatic Identification System (AIS) has evolved from a security tool into an economic control mechanism . In sanctioned contexts, disruption or manipulation of the AIS triggers automatic alerts in:
- Financial institutions
- Marine insurers
- Corporate compliance departments
This article introduces the concept of “coercive traceability ,” where technology not only monitors but also determines the viability of a business transaction. Under this paradigm, a technical irregularity can invalidate contracts, block payments, or cancel insurance coverage.
- Differentiated impact on international trade actors
Shipping companies and shipowners
They face a strategic dilemma between profitability and regulatory exposure, leading to reduced supply on sensitive routes.
Logistics operators and freight forwarders
They assume a critical role as regulatory risk managers, beyond traditional operational coordination.
Ports and terminals
They are transformed into geopolitical control nodes, with greater demands for compliance and traceability.
International financial system
It introduces frictions that slow trade, raise the cost of capital, and limit access to financing.
- Global repercussions and reconfiguration of international trade
Although the conflict analyzed is bilateral, its effects are global. The reduction of maritime capacity in one region impacts tariffs, availability, and schedules in distant markets. Furthermore, these dynamics accelerate:
- The fragmentation of global trade
- The emergence of parallel fleets
- The regionalization of supply chains
- New energy and logistics alliances
This process redefines the very concept of globalization.
- Original contribution and strategic relevance
The central contribution of this article is the identification of induced logistics uncertainty as a new axis of analysis for international business. It proposes that companies and states should abandon traditional risk management models and adopt integrated approaches that combine:
- Geopolitics
- Regulatory compliance
- Traceability technology
- Advanced logistics strategy
This approach is particularly relevant for economies dependent on maritime trade and for national economic security.
Conclusion
Economic sanctions and naval surveillance have ceased to be exceptional tools and have become structural components of contemporary international trade. Their impact on shipping routes, transport services, and business decision-making demands a profound re-evaluation of global logistics.
This article demonstrates that understanding and managing this new reality is not only an operational necessity, but also a strategic advantage for companies, governments, and economic systems that aspire to compete in an increasingly regulated, fragmented, and uncertain international environment.
