Stock Market

Nvidia Leads Semiconductor Surge By Hitting $160 Target

Stock in Nvidia soars 165% year-to-date, and Susquehanna increases its price target to $160, the highest on FactSet.

TakeAway Points:

  • With Susquehanna increasing its price target to $160, representing a 21% upside, Nvidia’s stock has soared 165% year to date.
  • Despite YTD decreases, Lattice Semiconductor and Rambus exhibit high potential, with average price targets predicting at least 23% upside.
  • The VanEck Semiconductor ETF is up 56% YTD, highlighting robust performance in the broader semiconductor sector.

Nvidia’s Stock Surges

Nvidia Corp. shares have experienced a remarkable surge, rising 165% year-to-date. This impressive performance has led Susquehanna analyst Chris Rolland to increase his price target for Nvidia’s stock from $145 to $160, suggesting a potential 21% upside from the stock’s closing price on Friday. 

Rolland’s target is based on a multiple of approximately 51.5 times his estimated adjusted earnings per share for calendar 2025. He justifies this higher multiple compared to the group median of around 28.5x by stating, “the company is well-positioned to take advantage of flourishing end markets.”

Despite the bullish sentiment from Rolland, the average price target among analysts polled by FactSet is below Friday’s closing price. This discrepancy is likely due to some analysts not updating their models to reflect recent stock movements, including a 40%-plus rally in the last month alone. Rolland’s target is now the highest on FactSet, indicating strong confidence in Nvidia’s future performance.

Enlarged Semiconductor Sector

While Nvidia has been a standout performer, other semiconductor stocks within the PHLX Semiconductor Index also show significant potential. Lattice Semiconductor Corp., Rambus Inc., and Intel Corp. have average price targets implying at least 23% upside. However, these companies have faced challenges this year, with Lattice shares down 13%, Rambus shares down 18%, and Intel shares off 39% year-to-date.

Analysts remain largely optimistic about Lattice and Rambus, with 71% of analysts tracked by FactSet holding buy-equivalent ratings for each. Lattice’s average price target suggests a 26% upside potential, while Rambus’s suggests 25%. In contrast, Intel presents a more mixed picture. Although the average price target implies a 23% appreciation, only 28% of the analysts surveyed by FactSet are bullish on the stock. Out of 47 analysts, 13 have buy-equivalent ratings, 30 have neutral ratings, and four have sell ratings.

Other Investment Opportunities

Beyond Nvidia, several other semiconductor stocks have shown strong performance. The VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) is up 13% in June and 56% year-to-date. Broadcom has hit a high, with the stock up 38% in June. Universal Display and Micron Technology have also performed well, with both stocks up 18% in June. Micron Technology is up 73% in 2024.

However, not all semiconductor stocks have fared as well. Intel is 39% below its December high and has remained flat in June. ON Semi is 36% below its July 2023 high and down 3% in June. AMD is 30% below its March high but up 7.5% in 2024. STMicroelectronics is 23% below its July high and down 14% in 2024. Marvell Technology is 16% below its March high but up 19% in 2024.

Meanwhile, Nvidia insiders have sold shares worth over $700 million this year as the stock continues to reach new highs driven by strong demand for its chips. Executives and directors have sold approximately 770,000 Nvidia shares so far, excluding the effect of the company’s 10-for-1 stock split on June 10. This marks the highest volume of insider sales in a half-year period since the first six months of 2023, when about 848,000 shares were sold, according to data from the Washington Service.

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