Uzbekistan’s legislative elections will be held on Sunday October 27th, announced the Central Election Commission (CEC) on Friday. While the election is not expected to significantly alter the political balance of power, it highlights the reformist ambitions of the former Soviet republic and its president, Shavkat Mirziyoyev.
No political upheaval is anticipated this fall in Tashkent, where President Shavkat Mirziyoyev’s Liberal Democratic Party of Uzbekistan (UzLiDeP) is expected to retain its majority. However, the October legislative elections mark the country’s full entry into its new Constitution, adopted by referendum in 2023, which aims to make Uzbekistan a more open and direct democracy.
First Legislative Elections Under the New Constitution
The October 27 elections will be the first legislative elections since the adoption of a comprehensive constitutional reform by referendum in 2023. This new Constitution establishes Uzbekistan as a direct democracy, granting citizens the right to initiate legislation. As a sign of the country’s increasing openness, the Constitution fully incorporates the Universal Declaration of Human Rights, along with most major international human rights documents.
Part of the legislative reforms will alter the nature of the elections themselves: instead s of the 150 members of the lower house of the country’s bicameral parliament, being chosen in a first-past-the-post system by constituency, the new process allocates half of the seats to proportional representation based upon the performance of party lists, with a threshold of 7%.
Despite this hybrid model, however, composition of the new assembly is likely to resemble the previous one, where the UzLiDeP (center-right), the country’s leading party, held 53 seats; the National Revival Democratic Party (Milliy Tiklanish, conservative right) had 36 seats; the People’s Democratic Party of Uzbekistan (XDP, center-left) held 32 seats; the Social Democratic Party of Justice (Adolat, center-left) had 24 seats; and the Ecological Party of Uzbekistan held 15 seats.
Uzbekistan: An Authoritarian Regime in Liberalization
A former Soviet republic, Uzbekistan was long ruled by Islam Karimov, an unmovable figure from the communist era who became the father of independence in 1991. Since his death in 2016 and the election of Shavkat Mirziyoyev, Uzbekistan has chosen a path of liberalization and reform, despite its structurally authoritarian legacy. These wide-ranging reforms are bearing fruit.
Through its constitutional reform, Uzbekistan has sought to identify itself as a social state, in which human rights guarantees have been significantly strengthened. The government has thus emphasized the promotion of the rule of law, political pluralism, as well as the fight against corruption and the transparency of its institutions. Although Uzbekistan’s standards have not yet reached those of major Western democracies, the country’s rise in various international socio-economic rankings (World Bank, IMF, etc.) is remarkable.
While the authoritarian legacy of Uzbekistan offers stability, there are still restrictions for the opposition movements in their ability to openly confront the regime. In this context, the October 27 elections will serve as a significant task of the country’s democratic progress. International observers from the OECD are expected to monitor the elections to ensure their fairness.
Shavkat Mirziyoyev: Popularity Fueled by Economic Progress
Despite the country’s democratic limitations, President Shavkat Mirziyoyev enjoys strong popularity, largely due to Uzbekistan’s dynamic economy. With a GDP of nearly $90 billion and annual growth exceeding 5%, President Mirziyoyev’s regime underpins Uzbekistan’s social contract on poverty reduction and economic liberalization.
Uzbek citizens are particularly receptive to these messages as they experience tangible improvements in their daily lives. In Uzbekistan the poverty rate has fallen from about 35,9% in 2016 to less than 17,3% in 2022 and all social indicators are positive, such as increased school enrollment, life expectancy, and access to healthcare.
