Huawei is set to release an “epoch-making” device on September 10, which coincides with the announcement of Apple’s iPhone 16.
TakeAway Points:
- Huawei intends to showcase its return with a 41% YoY rise in Q2 smartphone shipments in China at a critical product launch on September 10, hoping to outdo Apple’s September 10 announcement of the iPhone 16.
- After a new product launch, Apple shares have historically declined in September; however, Morgan Stanley analysts believe that the new iPhone 16 and Apple Intelligence integration could lead to improved performance.
- With a $273 price target, Morgan Stanley continues to rate Apple as overweight, while UBS is neutral at $190, citing launch-related concerns.
Huawei’s Next Product Release
Huawei announced plans to hold a product launch event on September 10 at 2:30 p.m. Beijing time, just hours after Apple’s annual iPhone reveal. The timing of Huawei’s event, which will be late evening on September 9 on the west coast of the U.S., appears to be a strategic move to upstage its American rival. Richard Yu, head of Huawei’s consumer and automotive technology group, described the upcoming product as “leading, innovative, and disruptive,” according to a Google translation of his Weibo post. Yu further stated, “This is an epoch-making product that others have thought of but cannot make,” and emphasized that after five years of investment, Huawei has “turned science fiction into reality.”
Huawei was once the largest smartphone player globally but faced significant setbacks due to U.S. sanctions that restricted its access to advanced semiconductors. Despite these challenges, Huawei has made a notable comeback. Last year, the company released a new phone featuring an advanced chip, surprising policymakers in Washington and the tech industry. This year, Huawei launched another smartphone, further solidifying its resurgence. According to research from Canalys, Huawei saw a 41% year-on-year increase in second-quarter smartphone shipments in China, the fastest growth among the top five brands. In contrast, Apple lost its position among the top five smartphone vendors by market share in China during the same period.
Apple’s historical results
September has historically been a challenging month for Apple shares. The tech giant is expected to unveil its iPhone 16 lineup and new Apple Watch models on September 9 at its headquarters in Cupertino, California. According to a FactSet analysis, Apple’s share price tends to rise in anticipation of product announcements but often experiences a pullback during the month of the launches. Over the past decade, Apple shares have averaged a September loss of 3.5%, following gains of 6.5% in July and 4.8% in August. This year, Apple gained 3.1% in August and has jumped nearly 19% year-to-date.
Morgan Stanley analysts believe this year’s announcement could result in better stock performance than historical trends suggest. The upcoming event is expected to focus on Apple Intelligence integration into the iPhone 16 model, which could drive demand for the company’s AI-related advancements. “Historically, the iPhone launch event has been a sell-the-news event,” said analyst Erik Woodring.
“We don’t necessarily expect the market to behave differently when Apple introduces the iPhone 16 on September 9th, but we do see the potential for Apple to perform better than historical seasonality into year-end as the introduction of the iPhone 16 and Apple Intelligence helps to unlock pent-up demand.”
Analyst Views Regarding Apple
Apple remains a “top pick” for Morgan Stanley, with Woodring maintaining an overweight rating on the stock and a $273 price target, suggesting a 19.2% potential upside from Friday’s close. Woodring noted that Apple shares have historically outperformed when the company’s product replacement cycles shorten, and he forecasts a contraction in iPhone replacement cycles through fiscal 2026.
On the other hand, UBS analyst David Vogt has a neutral rating on Apple shares with a $190 price target, indicating a potential 17% decrease over the next year. Vogt pointed out that August typically sees the lowest consumer purchases of iPhone models and highlighted the risks associated with the September launch.
“If Aug iPhone units come in around 14M, down ~3% [month-over-month], in line with recent seasonality, absent channel fill, Sept-24 sell-through would have to come in at 22.6M to hit our estimate, up ~20% YoY, a high bar in our view given Apple Intelligence is in beta and not available in Europe,” Vogt said.
