Cryptocurrency bettors have wagered $900,000 on Polymarket, with 17% of them believing that Trump would go to jail before Election Day.
TakeAway Points:
- Donald Trump has a 17% probability of being imprisoned prior to the U.S. presidential election, according to cryptocurrency bettors on Polymarket.
- Since January, $900,000 has been wagered on the question, “Trump in jail before election day?”
- Biden’s chances of winning the 2024 presidential election rose to 40%, while Trump’s fell to 54%.
Trump’s Legal Issues Affect Cryptocurrency Markets
The recent conviction of former US President Donald Trump on all 34 counts of falsifying business documents has had an impact on the cryptocurrency markets. According to Polymarket, a blockchain-powered prediction market, there is a 17 percent possibility that Trump will be imprisoned before November’s U.S. presidential election.
The report stated that $900,000 worth of bets have been placed since its inception in January, and this market noticed an increase in activity after the decision. If Trump is detained for at least 48 hours straight before November 5, the market will resolve to “Yes.” If not, it will resolve to “No.”
The odds of saying “Yes” are currently trading at 17 cents, while the odds of saying “No” are 85 cents as of early European morning. Because of price fluctuations and market unpredictability, the total might not equal 100. According to Reuters, there is still little likelihood that Trump will be imprisoned prior to the election, despite the increasing probabilities.
Exchange Responses and Coin Movements
Meanwhile, the TRUMP meme coin has been significantly impacted by the guilty decision; after the news, it fell by as much as 35%. On the other hand, the President Joe Biden-inspired Jeo Boden parody currency experienced a 20% surge. This discrepancy demonstrates how meme coins are sensitive to prevailing political opinion and events.
The shifting dynamics were also mirrored in the “Presidential Election Winner 2024” market on Polymarket. On Thursday, the likelihood that Trump will win the presidency fell by 2 percentage points to 54%, while the likelihood that Joe Biden will do so rose to 40% from 38%. In this prediction market, Trump still has a lead over Biden despite the court setback.
Political and Legal Repercussions
According to the report, trump becomes the first former president of the United States to be convicted guilty of a felony. He might receive a term of up to four years in prison, but legal experts say there are a number of ways to appeal the decision and postpone any possible jail time.
Veteran criminal defence lawyer Peter Pullano of New York State said, “An appeal in his case could take many months or even years to resolve.” This postponement would probably cause any resolution to be postponed until after the November election, giving Trump the freedom to run unopposed.
The New York case is the only one of the four criminal cases against Trump that has gone to trial. Other cases, including federal charges related to the 2020 election and the January 6 Capitol riots, as well as a separate federal case in Florida concerning classified documents, have been delayed. A state case in Georgia alleging racketeering also remains on hold.
