Communication-based Train Control System Market to Expand at a Healthy CAGR of 11.5% through 2031

According to Fact.MR’s analysis of communication-based train control (CBTC) systems, communication-based train control systems for trains account for more than 45 percent of the market, which is expected to be worth US$ 24.5 billion by 2031. By 2031, demand for CBTC systems is expected to grow at a rate of 11.5 percent CAGR, generating a value of roughly US$ 10.4 billion.

Fact.MR recently released a 10-year prediction for the communication-based railway control system market for the years 2021 to 2031. The research examines key industry trends that are currently influencing market growth. This study delves into critical factors including drivers, restraints, and opportunities for important market players, as well as key stakeholders and new companies, in the development of communication-based train control systems.


Market Size (2020) US$ 3.2 Bn
Value CAGR (2021-2031) 11.5%
Market Share of Top 5 Players 50%

Market Segments Covered in Communication-Based Train Control (CBTC) System Industry Analysis

  • By Train Type

    • CBTC Systems for Metros
    • CBTC Systems for High-speed Trains
  • By Grade of Automation
    • Communication-based Train Control Systems by GoA 1
    • Communication-based Train Control Systems by GoA 2
    • Communication-based Train Control Systems by GoA 3
    • Communication-based Train Control Systems by GoA 4

Takeaways from the Market Research

  • By 2031, the market for communication-based railway control systems is expected to grow by 3.2X.
  • Metro trains account for more than half of the global market and are expected to generate an absolute dollar opportunity of US$ 4.1 billion by 2031.
  • GOA4 has been the fastest-growing segment among the automation grades, accounting for almost one-third of the market.
  • In 2021, the East Asia market is expected to dominate revenue, with China and Japan expected to hold more than 75% of the market
  • With a combined market share of more than two-fifths, India and Malaysia are likely to dominate the South Asian area.
    North America’s market is expected to rise 3.7 times by 2031.

How are Middle Eastern countries collaborating to develop rail infrastructure?

The GCC countries and North Africa account for approximately a third of the MEA market. Only Dubai has over 120 kilometres of completely automated metro rail lines, 90 kilometres of which are new and 30 kilometres are extended.

Furthermore, Middle Eastern countries have roughly 116 completely automated metro lines, with 69 percent of them capable of transporting 300 to 700 passengers per train and the remaining 31 percent capable of transporting less than 300 passengers per train.

MEA has more than 12 projects in the works, all of which are expected to be finished by 2026 and will total more than 500 kilometres of rail track. Furthermore, governments are pursuing the development of high-speed trains in metropolitan areas, which presents prospects for manufacturers and suppliers.

What is the state of the CBTC market in the United States?

In the United States, demand for communication-based train control systems is expected to grow at a CAGR of roughly 12.7 percent, but will lose 51 basis points during the anticipated years. In the United States, demand for communication-based railway control systems is expected to expand 3.7X, representing an opportunity worth US$ 868.6 billion in absolute dollars.

The CBTC systems market in Canada, on the other hand, is expected to grow 3.8X at a CAGR of 13%. Canada is moving its attention from metro trains to high-speed trains, and it is putting out tenders for track construction. Over the future term, market participants are likely to be presented with a million-dollar absolute dollar opportunity.

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