In 2026, crypto and foreign exchange markets are undergoing the most profound structural shift in their entire history. Martons Group records the transition from a chaotic, predominantly retail speculative market to a mature, institutionalized ecosystem with new rules, risks, and opportunities. Martons Group identifies five primary drivers that made 2026 the true point of no return: explosive growth of derivatives, massive inflow of institutional capital, sharp acceleration and compression of market cycles, transformation of liquidity character, and a new nature of elevated volatility.
Martons Group is convinced — these changes are fundamental. Old approaches to trading, investing, and risk management are rapidly becoming obsolete. Martons Group in this article breaks down each of the five factors in detail and demonstrates why adaptation of strategies has now become not a recommendation, but a strict condition for survival and profitability.
Explosive Growth of Derivatives — the New Foundation of the Market
In 2025, the total volume of crypto derivatives trading exceeded $61 trillion, and in the first weeks of 2026 the growth rate only accelerated further. Perpetual swaps now account for 78–82% of the entire derivatives turnover. Martons Group emphasizes the qualitative leap: instruments once associated solely with aggressive speculation have turned into the primary mechanism for hedging, arbitrage, and structuring complex positions.
Martons Group notes that traditional venues (CME, Deribit, Binance Futures, Bybit) have introduced full 24/7 trading of institutional-grade crypto derivatives, while cross-asset products (stablecoin/fiat pairs, volatility index options, derivatives on tokenized RWAs) are becoming the main profitability driver for the next 2–3 years.
Massive Inflow of Institutional Capital
Martons Group estimates that from the beginning of 2024 through mid-February 2026, net inflows into spot Bitcoin and Ether ETFs surpassed $94–96 billion. BlackRock, Fidelity, Grayscale, Ark Invest and other giants already manage over $145 billion in crypto ETFs. This is no longer experimental interest — it is systematic allocation of 1–5% of portfolios by the largest pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and family offices.
Martons Group records a parallel boom in the tokenized real-world assets (RWA) market: the volume of tokenized U.S. Treasuries, corporate bonds, and money-market instruments has exceeded $52 billion. Fully reserved stablecoins have reached a market cap of $348 billion and have de facto become the “internet reserve currency.” It is precisely this institutional capital inflow that has radically changed market psychology: retail FOMO impulses have given way to long-term positioning and regular rebalancing.
Acceleration and Compression of Market Cycles
Martons Group declares the end of the classic four-year Bitcoin cycle. The duration of the bullish phase has shrunk dramatically: 2013–2017 ≈1400 days, 2017–2021 ≈1060 days, 2021–2025 already under 850 days. The current cycle, according to Martons Group’s base scenario, may fit into 480–620 days from trough to peak — and this is happening against the backdrop of constant fresh capital inflows that dampen corrections and accelerate recoveries.
Martons Group observes the same effect in FX markets: the correlation between BTC/USD and the DXY dollar index has reached 15-year highs. Crypto and fiat currencies are now moving in a single macro cycle, where Fed and ECB decisions, geopolitics, and tariff policies trigger near-instant reactions.
Liquidity Transformation — from Scarcity to Structural Abundance
Martons Group records the paradox of 2026: despite high price volatility, order-book depth and liquidity resilience have significantly increased. 24/7 spot and futures trading, institutional-grade automated market makers (Wintermute, GSR, B2C2, Jump Trading, etc.), and stablecoin capitalization above $340 billion have created an almost continuous liquidity flow 24/7/365.
Average spreads on key pairs (BTC/USDT, ETH/USDT) have dropped to 0.4–0.8 basis points even during strong moves. Martons Group stresses: liquidity has become “smart” — algorithms now predict cascading liquidations in advance and pull capital out of danger zones, enabling more aggressive strategies with controlled risk.
Elevated but Now “Institutional” Volatility
Realized 30-day Bitcoin volatility in 2026 fluctuates in the 55–95% range — still far above traditional assets. Yet Martons Group highlights the change in character: today’s spikes are no longer chaotic retail pumps/dumps, but sharp yet largely predictable reactions to macro news, inflation reports, central-bank meetings, and geopolitical triggers.
Martons Group notes a key shift: the bulk of liquidations now occurs on regulated venues (CME, Bakkt) rather than unregulated spot exchanges. Volatility has become more “readable,” opening the door to systematic options and delta-neutral strategies.
Conclusion: Adaptation Is the Only Path to Sustainable Returns
Martons Group draws a clear conclusion: 2026 is the point of no return. The market will never revert to the structure of 2020–2023. Institutionalization, cycle compression, new liquidity dynamics, and transformed volatility demand a complete overhaul of every approach.
Martons Group recommends clients focus on four priorities:
- active use of derivatives for hedging and income generation,
- systematic allocation to RWAs and stablecoin yield products,
- shift from classic HODL to dynamic exposure management within accelerated cycles,
- building strategies that exploit the predictability of institutional-grade volatility.
Martons Group has been helping institutional investors and professional market participants successfully adapt to new realities for over 15 years. In 2026 Martons Group reaffirms: those who do not restructure their strategies within the next 6–12 months risk falling seriously behind or exiting the game entirely.
