On November 6, 2025, the cryptocurrency market experienced an epic crash. Ethereum fell below the key support level of $3,100, and Bitcoin even breached the psychological barrier of $100,000, triggering a chain reaction of liquidations exceeding $1.2 billion. In this “Black Wednesday,” the Memecoin sector became a unique battleground for capital flows. Memecoin withstood both speculative selling pressure and demonstrated unique resilience due to the precise actions of whales.
The Memecoin holding code of the anti-CZ whale: a strategic balance between short and long positions.
According to Lookonchain monitoring, a mysterious trader known as the “anti-Zhao Changpeng whale” completed a key position adjustment during this market crash: not only did it establish a $109 million long position in Ethereum, but it also simultaneously held a $59.7 million short position in ASTER and a $11.3 million short position in kPEPE. Notably, this whale’s memecoin strategy exhibits a significant divergence—maintaining only a symbolic $21,500 long position in traditional memecoins like DOGE, while focusing its short positions on emerging memecoins like kPEPE.
This strategy implicitly reflects a structural assessment of the memecoin sector. ASTER, a project publicly endorsed by Changpeng Zhao, saw its price exhibit a classic “rise followed by crash” pattern after being shorted by whales, validating memecoin’s unique “celebrity effect – expectation gap” volatility model. Meanwhile, kPEPE, a memecoin derivative, saw its short positions established during a period of market liquidity depletion, reflecting seasoned investors’ hedging logic for highly leveraged speculative instruments. Conversely, DOGE holdings serve more as a “contrarian indicator” of market sentiment—when traditional memecoin long positions shrink to a symbolic size, it often foreshadows the formation of a bottom.
From a data perspective, memecoin holding characteristics are highly correlated with market cycles. In the later stages of a bull market, memecoin often becomes a major target for liquidation due to excessive speculation; while in the early stages of a bear market, its high volatility serves as a “temporary vehicle” for capital seeking refuge. This whale’s operation confirms memecoin’s dual nature: both a risk amplifier and a “stress test tool” during periods of liquidity depletion.
Technical Analysis: Memecoin’s Support Levels and Potential for a Rebound
Ethereum’s 200-day moving average (around $3300) became a key support level in this round of sharp declines. Observing the candlestick chart, the long lower shadow near $3150 indicates “smart money” accumulating at low prices. Combined with trading volume data, the single-day trading volume on November 6th surged by 300%, reaching a new high for the year. This resonates with the volatility characteristics of the memecoin sector—when mainstream coins like Ethereum face liquidation, memecoins often complete panic selling first, releasing downward momentum in advance.
For memecoins, technical analysis needs to consider two dimensions: first, their correlation with mainstream coins; and second, their independent volatility due to their speculative nature. Taking kPEPE as an example, its price exhibited a “V-shaped reversal” during the crash, demonstrating the resilience of memecoins in extreme market conditions. Meanwhile, DOGE’s sideways consolidation suggests that traditional memecoins may play a “sense stabilizer” role during market stabilization periods.
It is worth noting that the downward trend of the 50-day and 100-day moving averages continues to exert downward pressure on memecoins. However, if Ethereum can hold its 200-day moving average and rise above $3,500, memecoin may see a technical rebound. At this point, memecoin’s volatility may exceed that of mainstream cryptocurrencies, making it an “alternative target” for funds seeking excess returns.
Market Sentiment and the Future Outlook of Memecoin
Social media sentiment indices show a surge in discussions about “what’s happening with Memecoin” after the crash, but negative sentiment accounts for over 50%. This coexistence of fear and greed is a typical market characteristic of Memecoin—in extreme market conditions, Memecoin often becomes a “magnifying glass” for retail investor sentiment.
From a fundamental perspective, the value reconstruction of Memecoin needs to focus on three core elements: first, narrative innovation (such as the integration of NFTs and metaverse scenarios); second, improved liquidity (such as the surge in exchange listings and the development of derivatives); and third, regulatory dynamics (such as the classification and management of speculative assets in various countries). In the current market environment, Memecoin’s speculative attributes still dominate, but its function as a “liquidity indicator” is strengthening.
The holding strategy of anti-CZ whales provides important insights: establishing long positions at the peak of panic and short positions at the beginning of a bubble—this “contrarian operation” must be based on a deep understanding of Memecoin’s volatility characteristics. For ordinary investors, participating in Memecoin requires strict adherence to risk control principles—controlling position size, setting stop-loss and take-profit orders, and avoiding leverage.
Memecoin’s Ecosystem Evolution and Investment Logic
Currently, the memecoin ecosystem is undergoing structural changes. Traditional memecoins like DOGE and SHIB are improving their usability through technological upgrades (such as Layer 2 solutions) and ecosystem expansion (such as payment scenario implementation); emerging memecoins are rapidly attracting traffic through a “celebrity endorsement + community-driven” model. This differentiation has shifted the investment logic of memecoins from “pure speculation” to “value discovery.”
At the regulatory level, countries are increasingly tightening their classification and management of memecoins. For example, the US SEC has included some memecoins in its securities regulatory scope, requiring project teams to disclose more information. This regulatory pressure is forcing memecoin projects to improve compliance, which objectively benefits the long-term healthy development of the industry.
From a market cycle perspective, memecoin volatility cycles exhibit a “misalignment effect” with mainstream cryptocurrencies. When mainstream cryptocurrencies are in a consolidation phase, memecoins often experience independent price movements driven by events (such as celebrity endorsements or major project updates). This characteristic makes memecoins one of the tools for professional investors to conduct “cross-asset hedging.”
What’s the outlook for meme coin? — Finding certainty amidst volatility
In summary, the answer to “How is Memecoin?” depends on the investor’s risk appetite and investment horizon. For short-term traders, Memecoin’s high volatility offers quick profit opportunities, but comes with high risk. For long-term investors, it’s crucial to pay attention to Memecoin’s narrative innovation and ecosystem development to avoid falling into a “pure speculation” trap.
The actions of the anti-CZ whales suggest that at the peak of market panic, Memecoin may become a “vanguard” for capital deployment. However, such operations require accurate judgment of market cycles, technical signals, and capital flows. For ordinary investors, it is recommended to use Memecoin as a “satellite asset” in asset allocation, strictly controlling the position ratio and dynamically adjusting it in conjunction with the trends of mainstream cryptocurrencies.
Against the backdrop of the continuously evolving cryptocurrency market, Memecoin’s function as a “sentiment indicator” and “volatility amplifier” will continue. Understanding its operating logic, grasping market rhythms, and strictly adhering to risk limits are key to participating in Memecoin investment. As the anti-CZ whales have demonstrated, finding opportunities amidst panic and grasping certainty amidst volatility is the true wisdom of Memecoin investment.
