Despite robust fundamentals, the market has yet to fully price in HYPE’s performance.
In just four months, decentralized derivatives exchange Hyperliquid has seen its Total Value Locked (TVL) climb from $350 million to over $2 billion, an increase of more than 470%. The platform now accounts for more than 70% of on-chain perpetual trading volume, surpassing incumbents such as dYdX and GMX.
Yet while the protocol’s fundamentals have strengthened considerably, its native token, HYPE, has remained rangebound, trading between $40.59 and $47.22, below its July all-time high of $49.75. A forecast by cryptona.co suggests HYPE could end the year above $55. The divergence is prompting questions from investors about whether the market is mispricing one of DeFi’s fastest-growing protocols.
Protocol Growth Outpaces Price Performance
Launched in November 2024, Hyperliquid has distinguished itself by avoiding traditional venture capital funding, opting instead for a community-led airdrop that distributed 310 million HYPE tokens—31% of its total supply—to over 90,000 addresses.
The project, led by former Jane Street quant Jeff Yan, combines CEX-level performance with a fully on-chain architecture. HyperBFT, its proprietary consensus engine, currently handles over 200,000 orders per second with ~0.2 second finality, offering unmatched throughput in the DeFi space.
Operational metrics have been similarly strong:
- TVL: $2.01 billion as of August 1
- Assets Under Management: $5.5 billion
- Quarterly Fee Revenue (Q2 2025): $176.1 million
- Open Interest: $14 billion+
Tokenomics and Daily Burns Support Long-Term Thesis
One of the key mechanisms underpinning HYPE’s value accrual is the Assistance Fund, which allocates 15% of protocol fees to buy and permanently burn HYPE tokens on a daily basis. On July 17 alone, the fund repurchased 99,620 HYPE at a price of ~$47.43.
Source: Hyperliquid_Hub
The current tokemonics breakdown looks like following:
- Circulating Supply: 334 million (post-burn)
- Staked Supply: 34%
- Staking Yield: ~9% APR
- Net Supply Contraction: ~4% annually
This structure has drawn comparisons to stock buyback programs, offering deflationary pressure and long-term float reduction though its near-term impact on price has so far been muted.
Technical Levels Suggest a Decision Point
As of publication, HYPE trades close to both its 10-day SMA ($44.34) and 100-day SMA ($43.37). Technical indicators suggest the token is nearing overbought conditions:
- Relative Strength Index (RSI): 59.65
- Stochastic Oscillator: 70.39
- MACD: +0.2760
Key Support and Resistance Levels:
| Level | Type | Commentary |
| $50.81 | Resistance | Break could signal momentum continuation |
| $57.44 | Resistance | Next upside target post-breakout |
| $37.55 | Support | Breach may lead to retest of $30.92 |
| $30.92 | Support | Structural level for broader trend |
A breakout of the $50.81 resistance could catalyze a move toward $57.44, representing a potential 20% upside. Long-term HYPE price prediction allows for an increase to $55 in Q4. However, the convergence of key indicators suggests a near-term consolidation phase is likely before a decisive directional move.
Valuation Gap and Market Outlook
By most operational metrics, Hyperliquid has outpaced its peers. Yet its token valuation still lags. As of mid-July:
- Hyperliquid Market Cap: $15.4B
- dYdX Market Cap: $3.3B
- GMX Market Cap: $2.1B
If HYPE were to trade at dYdX’s 18× price-to-sales ratio, its fair value would exceed $62, indicating potential undervaluation assuming current fee velocity is sustained.
Further upside will likely hinge on upcoming roadmap catalysts:
- Launch of on-chain options and structured products
- Expansion into spot BTC, ETH, and SOL markets
- Potential Tier-1 exchange listings (e.g. Coinbase, OKX)
- Continued burn velocity from the Assistance Fund
Conclusion
While HYPE’s current price action suggests short-term indecision, the broader trend in protocol growth, earnings, and token burn dynamics supports a structurally bullish thesis.
The disconnect between platform fundamentals and token valuation presents a compelling case either as a temporary lag or as an emerging inefficiency in how DeFi markets price protocol success.
With the next resistance level in sight and roadmap execution underway, the coming months may determine whether HYPE remains overlooked or becomes the next re-rated blue chip in the DeFi space.
