November 2025 will go down as one of the most emotional and technically significant correction months of the entire ongoing bull cycle.
Just three weeks ago, at the end of October, Bitcoin was confidently marching toward $110,000, Ethereum was testing $5,000, Solana was trading above $260, and total market capitalization exceeded $3.8 trillion. Most analysts – including us – expected a calm continuation of the rally through year-end and new all-time highs as early as December.
But everything changed dramatically on November 3–4.
The first warning signs appeared: rising Open Interest with falling spot volume, persistently negative Funding Rate delta, and unusual outflows from spot ETFs. Then, on November 7–8, unexpectedly strong U.S. jobs and inflation data were released – and the dam broke.
Over the next ten days the market lost nearly 20 % of its capitalization.
Bitcoin plunged from $109,200 to a low of $95,500, Ethereum from $4,820 to $3,020, Solana lost 41 %, Avalanche 38 %, Cardano 44 %.
Long-position liquidations in a single week exceeded $1.2 billion, crypto fund outflows hit $940 million in just seven days, and the Fear & Greed Index collapsed to 24 – the “extreme fear” zone we last saw in March 2024.
Investors are now asking the same questions:
- Is this the end of the rally or just a healthy correction?
- Should I sell the rest or start buying the dip?
- Where is price headed in the next few weeks and where is the real bottom?
GrenBayChart presents a full, completely objective breakdown of what is happening: the root causes, current technical picture, three most probable scenarios for the next 4–6 weeks, and concrete recommendations on what to do right now.
1. Why the correction started exactly now
a) Technical triggers
- On November 12, a “death cross” occurred on Bitcoin’s daily chart: the 50-day SMA crossed below the 200-day SMA for the first time since March 2024. Historically, the average drawdown after such an event is −22 % over the following 30–45 days.
- Weekly RSI dropped to 42 – a zone where the deepest cycle corrections began in both 2021 and 2023.
b) Macro factors
- The probability of a December Fed rate cut fell from 78 % (end of October) to just 40 % after strong employment and inflation numbers on November 7–8.
- The DXY (U.S. dollar index) climbed back above 106.5 – every point above 106 historically drags BTC down by 2–3 %.
- 10-year U.S. Treasury yields rose to 4.62 % – capital is flowing out of risk assets and back into bonds.
c) Behavior of large players
- Spot BTC-ETF outflows in one week: −$940 million (BlackRock IBIT alone −$620 million)
- Whales (addresses >1,000 BTC) net-sold ~18,400 BTC in the last 10 days – the highest since May 2025
- Rising Open Interest on futures while spot volume falls = classic distribution signal
2. Current technical picture (as of 18 Nov 2025)
| Level | Price | Significance |
| Key support | $94,000–95,000 | 200-week SMA + June–July 2025 accumulation zone |
| Next support | $89,000–91,000 | 0.618 Fibonacci of the entire 2023–2025 move + volume profile |
| Resistance | $99,500–100,500 | 50-day SMA + short-squeeze stop cluster |
| Weekly RSI | 42 | Oversold territory – historically the starting point of 30–60 % bounces |
3. Three most probable scenarios (GrenBayChart assessment, 18 Nov 2025)
Scenario A – Deep correction (46 % probability)
BTC tests $89,000–91,000 in the next 10–14 days → strong rebound in Dec–Jan to new ATHs.
Scenario B – Sideways grind with slow recovery (38 % probability)
Range-bound trading $94,000–102,000 until year-end → real move higher in Q1 2026.
Scenario C – Fast V-shaped rebound (16 % probability)
$95,000 holds → back above $105,000 before Christmas.
4. What to do right now – GrenBayChart recommendations
- Do not try to catch the exact bottom – 78 % of such attempts end up buying 8–15 % above the real low.
- Use DCA in the $94,000–98,000 zone – the best strategy for November–December 2025.
- Keep 30–50 % in stablecoins for calm accumulation at $91,000–94,000 if it gets there.
- Watch three key confirmations: weekly RSI >50, ETF inflows resuming, DXY <105.
Conclusion
The current correction is a completely normal and healthy part of a bull cycle.
We have been through almost identical phases before – and each time the market went on to set new all-time highs.
November 2025 is not a time to panic.
It is the best accumulation window before the next major leg up.
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A correction is not the end of a rally.
It’s a sale before the next big move higher.
Use it wisely.